TODAY’S KEY TOPICS
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2025-09-24 09:53:32
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China Economy: Multiple factors behind the slowdown in investment growth
The reasons for the slowdown in investment growth are multifold. From the perspective of investmentcomposition, construction & installation projects, equipment & tool purchases, and other expenses contributed-0.6ppt, 2.1ppt, and -0.1ppt to overall FAI growth in 8M25, down 2.7ppt, 0.4ppt, and 0.5ppt from theircontributions in 3M25. Construction & installation projects were the main culprit for the recent slowdown in FAIgrowth. Data adjustments may have also contributed to the slowdown in investment growth. In addition, theadditional tariffs imposed by the US and the "anti-involution" policies may also have an impact on FAI growth.
**Yuchi ZHENG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080520110001, SFC CE Ref: BRF442; Wenlang ZHANG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.:S0080520080009, SFC CE Ref: BFE988
https://research.cicc.com/report/pdf/1203731-1
A-share Quant Strategy: LLM-based dynamic model allocation
This report proposes a novel dynamic strategy allocation method based on large language models (LLMs) –the “research-reasoning” framework. Through carefully designed prompts, we guide the LLM to act as anexperienced portfolio manager and perform contextual learning and reasoning on the information in the brief.We instruct the LLM to conduct logical reasoning and multi-objective trade-offs based on each underlyingmodel’s historical performance, risk profile, and adaptability to the current market state, and finally arrive at aninterpretable allocation solution that contains exact weight assignments and concise rationale for allocation.
**Xiaoxiao ZHOU, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080521010006, SFC CE Ref: BRA090; Xiang GU, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.:S0080521010010, SFC CE Ref: BRE496; Wencai ZHENG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080523110003, SFC CE Ref: BTF578; Junwei LIU,Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080520120002, SFC CE Ref: BQR365
https://research.cicc.com/report/pdf/1203650-1
Hang Lung Properties (00101.HK): Operations of the core commercial project in Shanghaicontinue to improve -- Maintain OUTPERFORM
We recently visited Plaza 66 and came away more confident about its business performance in 2H25 and2026. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and earnings forecasts. Given the Fed’s interest rate cut andimproving market risk appetite, we raise our TP by 6% to HK$9.46/sh, implying 15x 2025e core P/E, a 5.5%target dividend yield, and 8% upside. The stock is trading at 14x 2025e core P/E with a 5.9% dividend yield.
**Yiyu WANG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080521050007, SFC CE Ref: BOR985; Jiafan LI, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080523120001,SFC CE Ref: BTL933; Yuanqi SUN, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080521050008, SFC CE Ref: BOW951
https://research.cicc.com/report/pdf/1203727-1
Vale SA (VALE.US): Expansion projects progress well; new mid-grade product launched --Maintain OUTPERFORM
We recently attended Vale’s 2025 Analyst and Investor Tour to its Brucutu and Capanema iron ore mines inMinas Gerais, Brazil. The firm’s CFO also hosted an analyst roundtable in London. We raise our 2025E and2026E net profit by 6% and 5% to US$6,874mn and US$5,191mn mainly to reflect stronger-than-expectediron ore prices. The stock is trading at 4.7x 2025 EV/EBITDA and 6.6x 2025 P/E. We maintainOUTPERFORM and raise our DCF-based TP by 13% to US$12.80 (5.3x 2025 EV/EBITDA and 7.9x 2025P/E) based on our upward revisions to earnings forecasts and lowered capex guidance. Our TP offers 18%upside.
**Tingshuai FENG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080523090002, SFC CE Ref: BKQ263; Hanxiao WU, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.:S0080124060001, SFC CE Ref: BVD330; Yan CHEN, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080515060002, SFC CE Ref: ALZ159; Ding QI, Analyst,SAC Reg. No.: S0080521040002, SFC CE Ref: BRF842; Shuwei ZHANG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080521050005, SFC CE Ref:BRR099; Xin YANG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080511080003, SFC CE Ref: APY553
https://research.cicc.com/report/pdf/1203708-1 机构：中国国际金融股份有限公司 研究员： 日期：2025-09-24
The reasons for the slowdown in investment growth are multifold. From the perspective of investmentcomposition, construction & installation projects, equipment & tool purchases, and other expenses contributed-0.6ppt, 2.1ppt, and -0.1ppt to overall FAI growth in 8M25, down 2.7ppt, 0.4ppt, and 0.5ppt from theircontributions in 3M25. Construction & installation projects were the main culprit for the recent slowdown in FAIgrowth. Data adjustments may have also contributed to the slowdown in investment growth. In addition, theadditional tariffs imposed by the US and the "anti-involution" policies may also have an impact on FAI growth.
**Yuchi ZHENG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080520110001, SFC CE Ref: BRF442; Wenlang ZHANG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.:S0080520080009, SFC CE Ref: BFE988
https://research.cicc.com/report/pdf/1203731-1
A-share Quant Strategy: LLM-based dynamic model allocation
This report proposes a novel dynamic strategy allocation method based on large language models (LLMs) –the “research-reasoning” framework. Through carefully designed prompts, we guide the LLM to act as anexperienced portfolio manager and perform contextual learning and reasoning on the information in the brief.We instruct the LLM to conduct logical reasoning and multi-objective trade-offs based on each underlyingmodel’s historical performance, risk profile, and adaptability to the current market state, and finally arrive at aninterpretable allocation solution that contains exact weight assignments and concise rationale for allocation.
**Xiaoxiao ZHOU, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080521010006, SFC CE Ref: BRA090; Xiang GU, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.:S0080521010010, SFC CE Ref: BRE496; Wencai ZHENG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080523110003, SFC CE Ref: BTF578; Junwei LIU,Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080520120002, SFC CE Ref: BQR365
https://research.cicc.com/report/pdf/1203650-1
Hang Lung Properties (00101.HK): Operations of the core commercial project in Shanghaicontinue to improve -- Maintain OUTPERFORM
We recently visited Plaza 66 and came away more confident about its business performance in 2H25 and2026. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and earnings forecasts. Given the Fed’s interest rate cut andimproving market risk appetite, we raise our TP by 6% to HK$9.46/sh, implying 15x 2025e core P/E, a 5.5%target dividend yield, and 8% upside. The stock is trading at 14x 2025e core P/E with a 5.9% dividend yield.
**Yiyu WANG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080521050007, SFC CE Ref: BOR985; Jiafan LI, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080523120001,SFC CE Ref: BTL933; Yuanqi SUN, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080521050008, SFC CE Ref: BOW951
https://research.cicc.com/report/pdf/1203727-1
Vale SA (VALE.US): Expansion projects progress well; new mid-grade product launched --Maintain OUTPERFORM
We recently attended Vale’s 2025 Analyst and Investor Tour to its Brucutu and Capanema iron ore mines inMinas Gerais, Brazil. The firm’s CFO also hosted an analyst roundtable in London. We raise our 2025E and2026E net profit by 6% and 5% to US$6,874mn and US$5,191mn mainly to reflect stronger-than-expectediron ore prices. The stock is trading at 4.7x 2025 EV/EBITDA and 6.6x 2025 P/E. We maintainOUTPERFORM and raise our DCF-based TP by 13% to US$12.80 (5.3x 2025 EV/EBITDA and 7.9x 2025P/E) based on our upward revisions to earnings forecasts and lowered capex guidance. Our TP offers 18%upside.
**Tingshuai FENG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080523090002, SFC CE Ref: BKQ263; Hanxiao WU, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.:S0080124060001, SFC CE Ref: BVD330; Yan CHEN, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080515060002, SFC CE Ref: ALZ159; Ding QI, Analyst,SAC Reg. No.: S0080521040002, SFC CE Ref: BRF842; Shuwei ZHANG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080521050005, SFC CE Ref:BRR099; Xin YANG, Analyst, SAC Reg. No.: S0080511080003, SFC CE Ref: APY553
https://research.cicc.com/report/pdf/1203708-1 机构：中国国际金融股份有限公司 研究员： 日期：2025-09-24
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