CHINA ECONOMY：EXPORTS CONTRACTION UNDERSCORES RISING GROWTH PRESSURE IN 4Q
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2025-11-10 12:20:28
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China’s exports slumped to negative in Oct as exports to developed countriesincluding the US, EU, Japan, Australia and etc saw notable drops. Exports toemerging markets including ASEAN, Africa and Latin America also moderated.Transport equipment and integrated circuits remained robust in exports whileother tech products including laptops and cell phones further contracted. Propertyrelatedand low value-added products remained subdued. Imports moderateddragged by intermediate goods including steel & copper products, rubber &plastics and machine tools, reflecting softening industrial activities in China. Withexports expected to soften due to payback from front-loading and durableconsumption to slow down on demand overdraft, China may face mounted growthheadwinds in 4Q25. Growth pressure may prompt policymakers to introduceadditional easing measures, although the scale is likely to be more moderate thanlast year. Looking forward, we expect China’s export growth to decelerate from5.9% in 2024 to 3% in 2025 while import growth may mildly slow down from 1.1%to 0.5%. USD/RMB rates may appreciate from the current 7.13 to 7.1 by year endand 7.05 by end of 2026.
Exports slumped to negative as goods to developed countriesdropped. Exports dropped to -1.1% (all on a YoY basis unless specified) inOct from 8.3% in Sep, notably missing market expectation at 3.1%, the firstnegative reading since Mar 2023 excluding the Chinese New Yeardistortion. Exports to the US remained in a deep contraction at -25% in Octcompared to -27% in Sep. Exports to other developed countries softened,as the EU, Japan, South Korea, the UK, Australia and Canada saw notabledrops. Shipments to major re-routing destinations also moderated, asASEAN, Latin America and Africa slowed down from 15.6%, 15.2%, 56.4%to 11%, 2.1% and 10.5%. Trade surplus dropped 5.9% to US$90.1bn in Oct,indicating the 4Q25 GDP faces mounting downward pressure.
Circuits and ships remained robust while personal consumptiongoods moderated. Tech products moderated, as integrated circuits sloweddown to 26.9% in Oct from 32.7%, while personal computers and cellphones further dropped to -10% and -16.6% in Oct from -0.3% and -1.9%.Transport equipment, on the other hand, notably surged in Oct as ships andvehicles accelerated to 34% and 68.4% from 10.9% and 42.7%. Low valueaddedexports including textile yam, travel goods & bags, garments and toyssaw the biggest hit from tariff and declined further, as well as the housingrelatedproducts including furniture, lamps & lighting products and homeappliances. Rare earth exports remained elevated at 42.8% in Oct, reflectingthat the additional export controls were never fully imposed.
Imports moderated dragged by intermediate products. China’s importsof goods dropped to 1% in Oct from 7.4% in Sep, missing the marketexpectations of 3.9%. Imports from the US further dipped to -22.8% in Octfrom -16%. For energy products, import volume of crude oil further pickedup to 8.2% in Oct from 3.9%, while coal and natural gas further contractedby 9.8% and 7.2%. For raw materials, volume of iron and copper oreremained robust at 7.2% and 6.1% in Oct. Intermediate products saw largedeclines, as steel products, copper products, plastics, rubber and machinetools notably declined in imports volume, reflecting the moderating industrialactivities in China. Imports of integrated circuits moderated due to tradedisputes. Import volume of soybean accelerated to 17.2% in Oct from13.2%, as China vowed to import nearly 100mn tons from the US over thenext 3 years.
Narrowing trade surplus and weaker durable goods consumptionweighed on growth. GDP growth notably moderated in 3Q25 despiterecord-high of current account surplus at US$196bn. With exports expectedto further soften in 4Q due to payback from front-loading and durableconsumption to slow down due to demand overdraft, China may facemounted headwinds in economy. Growth pressure may promptpolicymakers to introduce additional easing measures, although the scale islikely to be more moderate than last year. Looking forward, we expectChina’s export growth to decelerate from 5.9% in 2024 to 3% in 2025 whileimport growth may mildly slow down from 1.1% to 0.5%. USD/RMB ratesmay appreciate from the current 7.13 to 7.1 by year end and 7.05 by end of2026. 机构：招银国际证券有限公司 研究员：Frank Liu/Bingnan YE 日期：2025-11-10
Exports slumped to negative as goods to developed countriesdropped. Exports dropped to -1.1% (all on a YoY basis unless specified) inOct from 8.3% in Sep, notably missing market expectation at 3.1%, the firstnegative reading since Mar 2023 excluding the Chinese New Yeardistortion. Exports to the US remained in a deep contraction at -25% in Octcompared to -27% in Sep. Exports to other developed countries softened,as the EU, Japan, South Korea, the UK, Australia and Canada saw notabledrops. Shipments to major re-routing destinations also moderated, asASEAN, Latin America and Africa slowed down from 15.6%, 15.2%, 56.4%to 11%, 2.1% and 10.5%. Trade surplus dropped 5.9% to US$90.1bn in Oct,indicating the 4Q25 GDP faces mounting downward pressure.
Circuits and ships remained robust while personal consumptiongoods moderated. Tech products moderated, as integrated circuits sloweddown to 26.9% in Oct from 32.7%, while personal computers and cellphones further dropped to -10% and -16.6% in Oct from -0.3% and -1.9%.Transport equipment, on the other hand, notably surged in Oct as ships andvehicles accelerated to 34% and 68.4% from 10.9% and 42.7%. Low valueaddedexports including textile yam, travel goods & bags, garments and toyssaw the biggest hit from tariff and declined further, as well as the housingrelatedproducts including furniture, lamps & lighting products and homeappliances. Rare earth exports remained elevated at 42.8% in Oct, reflectingthat the additional export controls were never fully imposed.
Imports moderated dragged by intermediate products. China’s importsof goods dropped to 1% in Oct from 7.4% in Sep, missing the marketexpectations of 3.9%. Imports from the US further dipped to -22.8% in Octfrom -16%. For energy products, import volume of crude oil further pickedup to 8.2% in Oct from 3.9%, while coal and natural gas further contractedby 9.8% and 7.2%. For raw materials, volume of iron and copper oreremained robust at 7.2% and 6.1% in Oct. Intermediate products saw largedeclines, as steel products, copper products, plastics, rubber and machinetools notably declined in imports volume, reflecting the moderating industrialactivities in China. Imports of integrated circuits moderated due to tradedisputes. Import volume of soybean accelerated to 17.2% in Oct from13.2%, as China vowed to import nearly 100mn tons from the US over thenext 3 years.
Narrowing trade surplus and weaker durable goods consumptionweighed on growth. GDP growth notably moderated in 3Q25 despiterecord-high of current account surplus at US$196bn. With exports expectedto further soften in 4Q due to payback from front-loading and durableconsumption to slow down due to demand overdraft, China may facemounted headwinds in economy. Growth pressure may promptpolicymakers to introduce additional easing measures, although the scale islikely to be more moderate than last year. Looking forward, we expectChina’s export growth to decelerate from 5.9% in 2024 to 3% in 2025 whileimport growth may mildly slow down from 1.1% to 0.5%. USD/RMB ratesmay appreciate from the current 7.13 to 7.1 by year end and 7.05 by end of2026. 机构：招银国际证券有限公司 研究员：Frank Liu/Bingnan YE 日期：2025-11-10
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